Live Small

January 25, 2010

Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

Filed under: U.S., Uncategorized, agriculture, economics, technology trends — admin @ 4:50 pm

In a world of finite resources, growth of anything is not indefinitely sustainable! An excellent lecture with graphs about compound growth in general and especially in the consumption of finite energy resources.

He gives examples of clippings and quotes from policymakers, experts and journalists which demonstrate their ignorance of basic arithmetic.

watch all 8 segments.

 

 

Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

Dr. Albert Bartlett, Professor Emeritus, Physics Dept, U of CO at Boulder

here are all 8 segments:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb3JI8F9LQQ  part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw9IgtjY   part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQd-VGYX3-E  part 4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-X6EpvWWu8  part 5
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3y7UlHdhAU  part 6
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyseLQVpJEI   part 7
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoiiVnQadwE   part 8

October 16, 2009

Book Report: Tom Wolfe’s "The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test"

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 10:52 am

 KoolAid_1stUSEd_front

First published in 1968, this work of nonfiction documents the exploits of Ken Kesey and his "merry pranksters".
The author first meets the group in San Francisco 1967, after it had already received attention in the national press.

I was hoping to learn about pranks the group had engaged in. I was disappointed. In the 5 years covered by this book, the pranks are few.
The group’s activities seem to consist of living in a group house, going on road trips, throwing parties with loud music, light shows and drugs, dressing in colorful clothing and painting their faces. They seem to believe that what they are doing is revolutionary. Perhaps at the time it was. Much of the music was composed on the spot using tape delays, electronics, and people rapping on multiple microphones. The band "The Grateful Dead" got its start playing at the prankster’s "Acid Test" and other parties.

What were the "Pranks"?

- In 1964 they drove across the country in their brightly painted bus. They persuade a grumpy gas station attendant to allow them to use the station’s restroom while filling up their bus with fuel. Yes. This is presented as an achievement. Simple tasks can be very difficult while under the influence of LSD.

- In Phoenix they drove around with a banner "A Vote for Barry is a Vote for Fun". Barry Goldwater was a presidential candidate from Phoenix.

- Ken Kesey invited members of the Hell’s Angels motorcycle gang to one or more of their parties. Some gang members ended up becoming regular attendees at the events.

- The pranksters put up a large sign "The Merry Pranksters welcome the Beatles" in front of their house. They then went to the Beatles concert, became anxious and left early. The Beatles did not attend the party.

- They distributed handbills announcing that they would be having a party at Stinson Beach. Instead they held the party at Muir beach, where they took LSD. LSD was legal at the time. Those who went to Stinson found no prankster party.

- At an anti-war rally in Berkeley, Ken Kesey denounces the rally and other speakers while a band of costumed pranksters and children play cacophonous music.

- They announced that the Rolling Stones would be present at one of their parties. The Stones did not attend.

- They threw a public "Acid Test" party in LA. They added LSD to one of two garbage cans full of kool-aid there. They failed to clearly warn attendees which one was laced. Some took the LSD by accident and believed they had gone insane.

- While a photographer shot portraits of some members of the group, the others drove away in the bus, leaving them stranded.

- While on bail for a marijuana charge, Ken Kesey wrote a suicide note and fled to Mexico. The plan: a friend would dress up as Ken, drive his van to the coast, crash it into a tree, throw his boots on the beach, and leave a suicide note in the van. The van breaks down and a tow truck pulls it to the spot. The boots sink into the water and are never found. The suicide note does not correspond to the circumstances of the van and fails to convince the police. Ken calls a friend from Mexico to tell him he’s okay. That friend walks into the next room and a journalist asks him "what have you heard from Ken?" "He just called me from Mexico!" was the answer. End of prank.

The book is an interesting snapshot of how the nascent "Hippie" movement was perceived at the time. The book was very popular and possibly did a large part in creating those perceptions.
The phrase "Summer of Love" does not appear in this book although much of it takes place in SF in 1967.
Tom depicts the Anti-War activities of the counterculture movement as having lost momentum in favor of drugs, parties and general dropping out. The demonstrations are left to fraternity men who take their girlfriends to protests in a Ford Mustang with commercially made signs.
In some circles it is an insult to call someone a "Martin Luther King" due to his backing down at the bridge in Selma.

MLK’s assassination and canonization are yet to come. What else is yet to come? The largest drafts of soldiers for the war in Vietnam, the "police riot" at the 1968 Democratic convention protest in Chicago, the Kent State massacre, etc. etc.,

More information about the book:

http://www.gradesaver.com/the-electric-koolaid-acid-test/study-guide/section3/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Electric_Kool-Aid_Acid_Test

November 11, 2008

Audio: Paul Krugman at LSE: Taxing the rich would work. Not all trade is good.

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 10:04 am

paul-krugman Paul Krugman

Trade and Inequality Revisited, a talk at the London School of Economics, Friday 4 May 2007 audio: mp3
The talk will make a lot more sense if you can see his slides.

Globalisation and Welfare, a talk at the London School of Economics, 14 Jun 2007 audio: mp3
The talk will also make a lot more sense if you can see his slides.

The field of economics is making some progress. Some of that progress comes from the giant experiments that countries have performed on themselves and each other. Marxism, "The Washington Consensus" and other appealing economic theories have been tested on whole populations, often with tragic results.
Economists get to study the results of those experiments. They get to use improved statistical methods that enable them to isolate corellations within very messy data.

Some progress in economics comes from developments in the economies themselves. For instance, Paul says: "It used to be said that taxing the rich wasn’t the solution to the problem of poverty, because there just weren’t enough rich people. But now there are."

July 16, 2008

Racing Sailboat Speed Comparisons: The Portsmouth Yardstick

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 10:02 am

Hundreds of sailboat designs compared on a triangle course:
http://www.ussailing.org/portsmouth/tables08/tables08mh.asp
A lower number is faster. Basically, in a race that a Sunfish(Portsmouth Yardstick 99) could complete in 99 minutes, a 49er(PY68.2) could finish in 68.2 minutes. The data is submitted from race results. That’s mostly on triangle courses where the bulk of time is spent beating into the wind. Thus it favors windward ability over top speed.
The Wikipedia Page explains how to apply the numbers in a real race. 
Among monohull centerboard boats, some are a lot quicker than the nearest competitors. 
For instance Frank Bethwaite’s very fast 16foot "49er" (PY68.2) with trapeze and wings:

Most of the other 49er-esque carbon/wings/trapeze/spinnaker things are around PY80.

There are some big "offshore classes" with fixed keels that are as fast, but here are a couple of midwestern monsters you won’t see at Nelson’s (a local boatyard):
The 38foot "A scow" (PY61)

The 28foot "E scow" (PY72.6)

The sunfish gets a rating of PY99, faster than a bunch of boats I thought would beat it.
The laser (PY91) is just a little faster, probably because the cool name attracts more serious skippers.
The Moth only gets PY107, which has to be wrong. That’s a racing class with hydrofoils and they’re very fast So don’t trust the list completely. There are many boats with the same name, that may be the source of the confusion.

The multihulls are all fast. The surprise is the Tornado (PY59), which is a 40-year old design with new sails, still within a few digits of the fastest. It’s interesting to see the comparisons between boats with the same hull and different sailplans, spinnakers, and trapeze added.

A buddy and I have one of these things in MA, but I’ve never sailed it. The centerboards are really wide and stubby.

The Malibu Outrigger (PY79) is a plywood outrigger sailing canoe inspired by craft seen by U.S. soldiers in the Pacific in WW2. Its performance is better than many high tech race machines. I would expect a true traditional canoe with equal weight, size, and sail area to perform as well or better. I rode a chase boat at a canoe race in the Marshall Islands, and we had to plane to keep up with the leaders. Here’s footage of the MH national race in 2001. Unfortunately these boats haven’t been submitted to the yardstick.

July 8, 2008

Audio: Why Civilizations Can’t Climb Hills

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 6:25 pm

James-C-Scott_ James Scott

http://richmedia.lse.ac.uk/publicLecturesAndEvents/20080522_1830_whyCivilisationsCantClimbHillsAPoliticalHistoryOfStatelessnessInSoutheastAsia.mp3
Why Civilizations Can’t Climb Hills: A Political History of Statelessness in Southeast Asia, a talk by James Scott Thursday, 22 May at the London School of Economics. Same talk: shorter link.

He’s an expert on Burmese hill tribes. His theory is that hill tribes in S.E. Asia were formed by refugees fleeing from various civilizations. The more usual view sees them as remnants of ancestor cultures. He shows various historical evidence including cultural adaptations suited to avoiding the burdens of the central government.
He relates the cost of exerting centralized control to shipping and travel time and expense. This is very much greater in hilly areas than in flat ones.

As the LSE blurb for the talk says: "There in the hills they have deliberately practiced forms of "escape agriculture", "escape social structure," and "escape culture" designed to avoid being made into state subjects while, at the same time, enjoying the advantages of trade with the valleys."

He restrains his observations largely to the tribes with which he is most familiar and among whom he has spent the most time, and attempts to not extend his historical narrative beyond World War 2.

I’ll have no such similar discipline in seeing parallels in other places and times.

For instance Humboldt County CA and other less-accessible hilly areas where misfits
flee to in this country to avoid government control. Look at the UPS map showing shipping times.
See those grey areas on the map? If you ship packages or people from the White House, those gray areas are the most expensive and time-consuming to reach.
ups_map_0113 
Those are grey areas in practice as well as cartographically. Populations of various dissident groups such as marijuana farmers, white separatists, and home-schoolers have moved there. Slow shipping means hills and an area attractive to a population seeking to avoid the burdens central rules and rulers.

Scott’s stories about attitudes toward hill tribes by flatlanders have parallels in other parts of the world. An Iranian friend of mine once told me what he thought of Kurds: "You can’t be civilized if you live in the hills. You have to live on flat land for that. A Kurdish boy has to steal something before he can get married. He has to show he knows have to steal. You can’t trust them. They fought against us in the war with Iraq. They killed our soldiers when they had the chance and gave information to the enemy."

One can go further in extending Scott’s observations into general patterns.
He gives examples of tribes that were once literate but abandoned writing. One can observe this happening now. Criminal and revolutionary organizations communicate verbally so as to not leave written records of their activities for authorities or rivals to find. Have you ever decided against emailing or writing sensitive information to someone? Something you didn’t want authorities (your parents/boss/police) to know? So you talked directly to that person or phoned them up? You may be on your way to the hills yourself.
This contrasts with the behavior of dominant organizations, who especially seek to create records of their most important activities and assets. Their biggest problem is internal corruption and incompetence rather than external enemies. To solve that they need detailed records. Many historians believe writing was created specifically for making such records, and the oldest examples of written language are indeed account books.

He gives examples of radical egalitarianism. Tribes that strive to avoid any hierarchy or official leaders. He even gives the extreme example, tribes who boast of killing members who gain too much influence.
One can see this process happening today in dissident/deviant/counterculture groups.
Many organizations that are opposed by law enforcement have developed methods of "leaderless organization" to reduce the disruption if prominent members are arrested, and to decrease the responsibility each member bears for the group’s activities. For instance the Rainbow Family, the group that puts on annual "Rainbow Gatherings" of 30,000 people or more in national and state forests. They are opposed by park managers and a range of law enforcement groups, depending on where they decide to camp. Their "unofficial webpage" starts with "Some say we’re the largest non-organization of non-members in the world. We have no leaders, and no organization." But a Rainbow Gathering is not chaos. There is a great deal of organization. But it is done in such a way and through customs that minimize the disruption if any number of members are arrested or depart suddenly.

An extreme example of a decentralized organization opposed by a major empire is the U.S. effort against Al Queda. I went to a talk on U.S. efforts against the group (citation needed) The speaker said that our efforts to capture and kill terrorist leaders had the effect of flattening and de-centralizing the organization, and making it a much tougher adversary. And why would anyone want to run a global organization from a cave in Afghanistan? Was it chosen to create large shipping and transportation expenses for the expected U.S. response?

Scott talks about the difficulty of exerting centralized control due to shipping costs and relationship to taxation. He illustrates this with the Chinese proverb "Do not sell grain more than 250 Li distant." The team of oxen needed to carry a cartload of grain would consume their cargo in that distance. So when stored grain was the medium of exchange, it was difficult to obtain taxes from distant and hilly places. I’m tempted to expound on the history of the Scotch-Irish diaspora, the Appalachian moonshine trade during prohibition, and parallels to the marijuana-growing regions today, but I see from James Scott’s wikipedia page that he’s written books that may cover all of this, so my time would be better spent reading than ranting!

July 7, 2008

Audio: Israelis and Palestinians for Beginners

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 4:26 pm

shai_ Shikaki_

Shai Feldman                 and           Khalil Shikaki 

http://richmedia.lse.ac.uk/publicLecturesAndEvents/20070613_1800_israelAndThePalestinians.mp3
more information about the event.

They gave this talk at the London School of Economics June 13, 2007 entitled
"Israel and the Palestinians: Domestic Developments and Prospects for Talks"

They explain the internal political situation among Israelis and among Palestinians. It’s very well done. Clear, dispassionate, without demonizing anyone or substituting ideology for information. These guys seem to actually know what they’re talking about.

              Barely Related Rant About the U.S.Corporate Media
You will never see information of this quality on a news show in the U.S. mainstream media. I don’t know why. There are an abundance of great experts like these guys on every subject, and they love to talk. But our ignorance-amplifying echo-chamber media would rather cover press conferences held by deeply-invested weasels with major lies to tell. Why don’t I watch TV or listen to the radio? 
I don’t have the patience to let halfwit newscaster zombies lay their eggs on my brain. Have you ever seen a news story about something you knew about? Then you know why I’m irked. There’s very little effort to get the info right, or even convey much actual information. Newscasters have a genius ability to keep talking in a really convinced way about things they are ignorant about. Even when I hear things on the news that I know to be untrue, it astounds me how convincing they sound. And they don’t have to check their facts. They only need to find a source. Once something has been said, the others can repeat it. That’s journalistic ethics. Back to you Tom! Show us a burning house and a car wreck!
Did you know we’re involved in Somalia again? If you only watch network news, you don’t.

July 6, 2008

Audio: U.S. Misrule in Afghanistan

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 7:40 pm

ST-CHAYES Photo-Junger
Sarah Chayes                          Sebastian Junger

http://forum.wgbh.org/content/forum/3207-2006_09_25.mp3

A talk entitled "Rebuilding Afghanistan" held at the JFK library on Monday, September 25, 2006
other formats and details

They’ve been living in Afghanistan for years. An excellent talk about the difficulties of life for Afghans and how U.S. misrule has made things worse rather than better.
Rand Corp Afghanistan Expert Seth Jones gave an excellent talk at MIT SSP on November 7 2007 that backs up what these two say as well as some additional twists. Anyone got mp3s of his talk? slides?

I used to think Afghanistan was a country you couldn’t hurt. Under the Taliban it was poor as hell, women were largely confined to the home, and men were born with an inherited  list of men they’re supposed to kill. How could you screw that up? Well, we did. It turns out that a government is expected to provide two things: security and services. The Taliban provided no services. The regime we have installed provides no services and no security.
A truck taking produce to market will be stopped at a roadblock. The gunmen there will confiscate your truck and hold your relatives for ransom. They are working for the governor, who is a warlord. Think Al Capone with heavy weapons. The CIA(pick your acronym, US) gave him these weapons in exchange for promises of hunting AlQueda Jihadis and fighting the Taliban. Karzai’s central government army is not as strong as the warlord militias. So he made them governors of provinces.
If your province borders Pakistan, in addition to your governor’s henchmen, there will be Taliban gunmen coming from Pakistan. The U.S gives support to Pakistan. Pakistan gives support to the Taliban.
Seth Jones’ (State Dept?) map of Taliban actions shows clusters all along the Pakistan border. Polls show that Afghans are angry at the U.S. for our perceived support for the Taliban.
If your province borders Iran, Taliban attacks do not happen, because they are enemies of Iran and cannot operate in Iranian territory.

Audio: European Union Central Govt explained

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 6:27 pm

faculty_moravcsik Andrew Moravcsik

http://uc.princeton.edu/main/images/stories/podcast/20070405AndrewMoravcsik.mp3
(Apr 5, 2007.  Princeton University President’s Lecture Series)

synopsis and other formats

A very entertaining talk about mechanisms of democracy and central control as the EU "constitution" evolves. The world’s fastest-growing empire has the weakest central government.
Sounds like the EU is more like what our founding fathers intended than what we have here in the U.S.

June 12, 2008

Audio: Katrina Disaster Analysis by Douglas Brinkley

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 8:55 am

neworleans10b  Brinkley
Photograph: Brian Snyder/ Reuters

An entertaining lecture on grim topics: the flood, disaster response and mismanagement.
Build a city below sea level and don’t maintain the levees. Channelize the river, build houses on the floodplains, remove barrier islands and delta marshes.
Park your emergency equipment in the low areas. Have very corrupt law enforcement.
Hire emergency response buses only from bus companies that donated to the Republican Party, regardless distance or availability. Prevent Walmart and other private donors from sending supplies to the victims.

lecture: http://www.anselm.edu/news/podcasts/nhiop18-douglas-brinkley-4-23-07.mp3

event photos: http://http//www.flickr.com/photos/saintanselm/tags/douglasbrinkley/

April 22, 2008

Audio: Brad Delong on How Economic Development Really Happens

Filed under: Uncategorized — admin @ 3:24 pm

JBD_square_c (image source)
lectures:
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/2007_audio/20071030_101_Fallows.mp3
http://j-bradford-delong.net/2007_audio/20071101_111154.mp3
http://j-bradford-delong.net/2007_audio/20071106_121406.mp3
http://j-bradford-delong.net/2007_audio/20071108_121455.mp3
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/2007_audio/20071115_112044.mp3
these are all lectures from his UC Berkeley Political Economy 101 syllabus: http://delong.typepad.com/pe101/2007/10/political-econo.html
There are many more lectures from that class and others on his podcast page, unfortunately many of them are quicktime format rather than mp3:
http://web.mac.com/jbdelong/Brad_DeLongs_iWeb/Coffee_and_Tea_Audio_Podcasts/Coffee_and_Tea_Audio_Podcasts.html

He’s a very entertaining speaker and an original thinker, usually without straying too far.
Interesting comparisons of countries which developed and those that didn’t. You’ll note that the IMF/Worldbank neoliberal "Washington Consensus" that was foisted on so many countries for decades hasn’t worked ever. The countries that have overcome poverty do it in quite a different way. For instance South Korea. He provides especially good specifics on how S. Korea got so rich so fast. They’re everyone’s favorite big economic success story at the moment.

He mentions that Japan isn’t doing so well at the moment. You often hear such things said because their rate of economic growth has slowed. But just go look at the place.

We in the U.S. should aspire to trouble like Japan has. For instance, if I want to take a train from SF to LA, Amtrak will put me on a bus, because the train might be 14 hours late. The trains in the U.S. were better in 1940 than they are today. I rode the first bullet train in Japan in the 70’s. Now they have bullet trains all over the country. The U.S. now has over 2 million men in prison and between just 2001 and 2005 shipped over 1 million soldiers to  invasions and occupations of other countries. The Japanese government, I was proudly told by a friend there, has killed no one in the last 50 years. They have very few prisoners and little crime. They’ve been building gymnasiums, museums, and other facilities at an astounding rate. Their public debt is proportional to ours, but unlike our debt which goes to warlike blundering, theirs provides them with 7000 museums. In Japan children ride trains to and from school by themselves. In Japan I can sleep safely in a park almost anywhere. If you know of places in the U.S. where I can do this, please tell me.

Next Page »

Powered by WordPress